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Xinhu Futures: the domestic central bank and the US Reserve cut interest rates to support LLDPE's continued rebound trend

upstream newsletter:

affected by the slight increase in US oil inventories announced yesterday, NYMEX crude oil futures closed at $67.5/barrel in December, up $4.77/barrel. London Brent 12 crude oil futures rose $5.18 to close at $65.47. The China Plastics price index fell 16.71 points to 824.97 points, and the China Plastics spot index fell 2.80 points to 1010.15 points

the latest closing price of Asian ethylene fell by $50/ton, CFR Northeast Asia reported $450-460/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia reported $450-460/ton. Due to mechanical failure, Iran marun Petrochemical closed its 1.1 million ton/year cracking unit last week, and it is not clear when it will restart. Market news said that affected by the shutdown of the unit, ethylene shipments to Asia will be significantly reduced. However, it was dragged down by the sluggish demand

Petrochemical dynamics:

Tianjin United shut down all linear units on September 28, originally planned to shut down for one month. At present, it is reported that the driving date will be further postponed until November 25. Qilu Petrochemical HDPE Plant line a produces 6098, line B produces 1158, LLDPE plant produces 7042, and LDPE plant produces 2102tn26. In terms of petrochemical inventory, the inventory is average. The production of Zhongyuan ethylene LLDPE plant today is 7050, and the current inventory is slightly higher. It is said that there is a ton production reduction plan in November. Daqing Petrochemical low-voltage line a produces 5000S, line B produces 5000S, and line C produces 5300b. LLDPE unit produces 7042, new high pressure production 2426h, and old high pressure shutdown for maintenance

market situation:

Beijing market has more inquiries, but less transactions; Linyi market inquiries in general, affected by crude oil, some people tentatively reported stability, the actual transaction negotiation; Tianjin market quotation continued to decline; The quotations of some businesses around Yanshan continue to move down; The local quotation in Shanghai continues to decline, and the market is still lack of substantive transactions; Guangzhou market quotation continued to decline; Xiamen market is in short supply, in order to reduce the environmental footprint, but due to the continued downturn in demand, the market quotation is still declining, and there is a strong pessimistic atmosphere on the floor

business mentality:

although the market quotation falls again and again, there is a lack of terminal demand. Even if a single negotiation is made, the actual transaction is still difficult. The market basically has a price but no market. Most businesses are extremely pessimistic and pay most attention to when the market bottoms in the later stage. At present, the mainstream price of LLDPE in the market is: yuan/ton,

disk situation:

the main 901 contract of LLDPE in the big commercial exchange opened at 6920 yuan/ton today, with intraday oscillation rising, and the final daily limit closed. A total of 179354 transactions were made throughout the day

in depth analysis:

at present, the social inventory is low, and under the condition of "vacuum" of some brands, the phenomenon of low-price selling by merchants has shown a natural slowdown trend. When the futures price closed at the rising limit, the neglected rumors of "petrochemical production reduction" in the morning could not help surfacing; The so-called "demand crisis" also seems to have ushered in the first sunshine after a long cold winter

generally speaking, the trend of LLDPE today is more in line with the author's expectations. Among them, the Federal Reserve gb/t21238 (2) 008 "glass fiber reinforced plastic sand pipe" and the domestic joint interest rate reduction policy. The main purpose of the policy is: under the current situation that the downward risk of the entire macroeconomic is increased and inflation is effectively alleviated, the macro-control policy has fully entered the stage of stimulating consumption and starting experiments without returning to zero and maintaining growth

therefore, international commodity prices have rebounded. Operational advice: activist duo Li Ning also continues to hold the graphene technology innovation notice. Conservatives can make profits and close their positions today. Tomorrow weekend, investors may reduce their positions significantly, or there may be a small callback. In the interim, they can redeem on bargain hunting. The next rebound target price is 7380 yuan/ton, and the stop loss position is 6830 yuan/ton

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